Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 11.312417 13.916945 16.845395 20.361006 24.444848 29.016964 34.499514
2025-04-20 7.658803 10.984778 15.177231 20.754877 27.876525 36.556184 47.813454
2025-04-27 5.772686 9.355661 14.289756 21.372524 31.043791 43.535886 60.601932
2025-05-04 4.604666 8.300173 13.786467 22.168533 34.241215 50.552094 73.728255
2025-05-11 3.697739 7.367360 13.205610 22.636147 36.864288 56.836922 86.163452
2025-05-18 2.897750 6.387386 12.331941 22.461200 38.422826 61.630326 96.733734
2025-05-25 2.196225 5.384147 11.210139 21.682139 38.900168 64.792739 105.072140
2025-06-01 1.733488 4.702490 10.495074 21.423082 40.080315 68.973308 115.017476
2025-06-08 1.296646 3.938620 9.474168 20.467626 39.985928 71.134234 121.996788
2025-06-15 1.109006 3.681048 9.372798 21.119194 42.582446 77.587680 135.754328
2025-06-22 0.845444 3.146212 8.600590 20.402195 42.729167 80.100781 143.493366
2025-06-29 0.740291 2.998682 8.626511 21.218468 45.625199 87.215184 158.763447
2025-07-06 0.493611 2.354060 7.443811 19.549270 44.052730 87.146033 163.125655
2025-07-13 0.398676 2.146983 7.262334 19.959906 46.437092 94.004410 179.261233
2025-07-20 0.329097 1.992764 7.177115 20.560312 49.225716 101.712946 197.165569
2025-07-27 0.277282 1.878737 7.171358 21.332068 52.404184 110.270854 216.869122
2025-08-03 0.225850 1.733144 7.040026 21.785456 54.963719 117.841392 235.205467
2025-08-10 0.171052 1.527931 6.675637 21.615828 56.205636 123.058377 249.688857
2025-08-17 0.119310 1.285126 6.116433 20.860548 56.118017 125.775693 259.888868
2025-08-24 0.087558 1.124363 5.775902 20.609435 57.081268 130.498075 273.807413
2025-08-31 0.057217 0.925086 5.223721 19.683440 56.435715 132.066284 282.092680
2025-09-07 0.047009 0.875707 5.226003 20.314889 59.392897 140.808639 303.763785
2025-09-14 0.030720 0.733412 4.798130 19.620036 59.184325 143.253282 313.925245